Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 30th, 2025

Shaun Zipursky • July 30, 2025

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 30, 2025

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs.

While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar.

The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027.

In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January.

In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.

In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices.

With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.

Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025.

Read the July 30th., 2025 Monetary Report

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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 10th, 2025

By Shaun Zipursky • December 10, 2025

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

Collateral vs. Standard Mortgage: Pros and Cons Explained

By Shaun Zipursky • December 3, 2025

Mortgage Registration 101: What You Need to Know About Standard vs. Collateral Charges When you’re setting up a mortgage, it’s easy to focus on the rate and monthly payment—but what about how your mortgage is registered? Most borrowers don’t realize this, but there are two common ways your lender can register your mortgage: as a standard charge or a collateral charge . And that choice can affect your flexibility, future borrowing power, and even your ability to switch lenders. Let’s break down what each option means—without the legal jargon. What Is a Standard Charge Mortgage? Think of this as the “traditional” mortgage. With a standard charge, your lender registers exactly what you’ve borrowed on the property title. Nothing more. Nothing hidden. Just the principal amount of your mortgage. Here’s why that matters: When your mortgage term is up, you can usually switch to another lender easily —often without legal fees, as long as your terms stay the same. If you want to borrow more money down the line (for example, for renovations or debt consolidation), you’ll need to requalify and break your current mortgage , which can come with penalties and legal costs. It’s straightforward, transparent, and offers more freedom to shop around at renewal time. What Is a Collateral Charge Mortgage? This is a more flexible—but also more complex—type of mortgage registration. Instead of registering just the amount you borrow, a collateral charge mortgage registers for a higher amount , often up to 100%–125% of your home’s value . Why? To allow you to borrow additional funds in the future without redoing your mortgage. Here’s the upside: If your home’s value goes up or you need access to funds, a collateral charge mortgage may let you re-borrow more easily (if you qualify). It can bundle other credit products—like a line of credit or personal loan—into one master agreement. But there are trade-offs: You can’t switch lenders at renewal without hiring a lawyer and paying legal fees to discharge the mortgage. It may limit your ability to get a second mortgage with another lender because the original lender is registered for a higher amount than you actually owe. Which One Should You Choose? The answer depends on what matters more to you: flexibility in future borrowing , or freedom to shop around for better rates at renewal. Why Talk to a Mortgage Broker? This kind of decision shouldn’t be made by default—or by what a single lender offers. An independent mortgage professional can help you: Understand how your mortgage is registered (most people never ask!) Compare lenders that offer both options Make sure your mortgage aligns with your future goals—not just today’s needs We look at your full financial picture and explain the fine print so you can move forward with confidence—not surprises. Have questions? Let’s talk. Whether you’re renewing, refinancing, or buying for the first time, I’m here to help you make smart, informed choices about your mortgage. No pressure—just answers.

Best Mortgage Options for Canadian Homebuyers

By Shaun Zipursky • November 26, 2025

Thinking of Calling Your Bank for a Mortgage? Read This First. If you're buying a home or renewing your mortgage, your first instinct might be to call your bank. It's familiar. It's easy. But it might also cost you more than you realize—in money, flexibility, and long-term satisfaction. Before you sign anything, here are four things your bank won’t tell you—and four reasons why working with an independent mortgage professional is the smarter move. 1. Your Bank Offers Limited Mortgage Options Banks can only offer what they sell. So if your financial situation doesn’t fit neatly into their guidelines—or if you’re looking for competitive terms—you might be out of luck. Working with a mortgage broker? You get access to mortgage products from hundreds of lenders : major banks, credit unions, monoline lenders, alternative lenders, B lenders, and even private funds. That means more options, more flexibility, and a much better chance of finding a mortgage that fits you. 2. Bank Reps Are Salespeople—Not Mortgage Strategists Let’s be honest: most bank mortgage reps are trained to sell their employer’s products—not to analyze your financial goals or tailor a long-term mortgage plan. Their job is to generate revenue for the bank. Independent mortgage professionals are different. We’re not tied to one lender—we’re tied to you. Our job is to shop around, negotiate on your behalf, and recommend the mortgage that offers the best balance of rate, terms, and flexibility. And yes, we get paid by the lender—but only after we find you a mortgage that works for your situation. That creates a win-win-win: you get the best deal, we earn our fee, and the lender earns your business. 3. Banks Don’t Lead with Their Best Rate It’s true. Banks often reserve their best rates for those who ask for them—or threaten to walk. And guess what? Most people don’t. Over 50% of Canadians accept the first renewal offer they get by mail. No questions asked. That’s exactly what the banks count on. Mortgage professionals don’t play that game. We start by finding lenders offering competitive rates upfront, and we handle the negotiations for you. There’s no guesswork, no pressure, and no settling for less than you deserve. 4. Bank Mortgages Are Often More Restrictive Than You Think Not all mortgages are created equal. Some come with hidden traps—especially around penalties. Ever heard of a sky-high prepayment charge when someone breaks their mortgage early? That’s often due to something called an Interest Rate Differential (IRD) —and big banks are notorious for using the harshest IRD calculations. When we help you choose a mortgage, we don’t just focus on the interest rate. We look at the whole picture, including: Prepayment privileges Penalty calculations Portability Future flexibility That way, if your life changes, your mortgage won’t become a financial anchor. A Quick Recap What your bank typically offers: Only their own limited mortgage products Sales-focused representatives, not mortgage strategists Default rates that aren’t usually their best Restrictive contracts with high penalties What an independent mortgage professional delivers: Access to over 200 lenders and customized mortgage solutions Personalized advice and long-term financial strategy Competitive rates and terms upfront Transparent, flexible mortgage options designed around your needs Let’s Talk Before You Sign Your mortgage is likely the biggest financial commitment you’ll ever make. So why settle for a one-size-fits-all solution? If you're buying, refinancing, or renewing, I’d love to help you explore your options, explain the fine print, and find a mortgage that truly works for you. Let’s start with a conversation—no pressure, just good advice.