Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 30th, 2025

Shaun Zipursky • July 30, 2025

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 30, 2025

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs.

While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar.

The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027.

In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January.

In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.

In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices.

With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.

Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025.

Read the July 30th., 2025 Monetary Report

< Older Post Newer Post >

SHAUN ZIPURSKY

GET STARTED

Buying a Vacation Property or Rental? Here’s What Lenders Look For

By Shaun Zipursky • April 1, 2026

Owning a vacation home or an investment rental property is a dream for many Canadians. Whether it’s a cottage on the lake for family getaways or a rental unit to generate extra income, real estate can be both a lifestyle choice and a smart financial move. But before you dive in, it’s important to know what lenders look for when financing these types of properties. 1. Down Payment Requirements The biggest difference between buying a primary residence and a vacation or rental property is the down payment. Vacation property (owner-occupied, seasonal, or secondary home): Typically requires at least 5–10% down, depending on the lender and whether the property is winterized and accessible year-round. Rental property: Usually requires a minimum of 20% down. This is because rental income can fluctuate, and lenders want extra security before approving financing. 2. Property Type & Location Not all properties qualify for traditional mortgage financing. Lenders consider: Accessibility : Is the property accessible year-round (roads maintained, utilities available)? Condition : Seasonal or non-winterized cottages may not meet standard lending criteria. Zoning & Use : If it’s a rental, lenders want to ensure it complies with municipal bylaws and zoning regulations. Properties that fall outside these norms may require financing through alternative lenders, often with higher rates but more flexibility. 3. Rental Income Considerations If you’re buying a property with the intent to rent it out, lenders may factor the rental income into your mortgage application. Long-term rentals : Lenders typically accept 50–80% of the expected rental income when calculating your debt-service ratios. Short-term rentals (Airbnb, VRBO, etc.) : Many traditional lenders are cautious about using projected income from short-term rentals. Alternative lenders may be more flexible, depending on the property’s location and your financial profile. 4. Debt-Service Ratios Lenders use your Gross Debt Service (GDS) and Total Debt Service (TDS) ratios to determine if you can handle the mortgage payments alongside your other obligations. With investment or vacation properties, lenders may apply stricter guidelines, especially if your primary residence already carries a large mortgage. 5. Credit & Financial Stability Your credit score, employment history, and overall financial health still matter. Since vacation and rental properties are considered higher risk, lenders want reassurance that you can handle the additional debt—even if rental income fluctuates or the property sits vacant. 6. Insurance Requirements Rental properties often require specialized landlord insurance, and vacation homes may need coverage tailored to seasonal or secondary use. Lenders will want proof of adequate insurance before releasing mortgage funds. The Bottom Line Buying a vacation property or rental can be exciting, but financing these purchases comes with extra rules and considerations. From higher down payments to stricter property requirements, lenders want to be confident that you can handle the responsibility. If you’re considering a second property, the best step is to work with a mortgage professional who can compare lender requirements, outline your options, and find the financing that works best for you. Thinking about making your dream of a vacation or rental property a reality? Connect with us today.

Your Guide to Successfully Navigating the Housing Market

By Shaun Zipursky • March 25, 2026

Wondering If Now’s the Right Time to Buy a Home? Start With These Questions Instead. Whether you're looking to buy your first home, move into something bigger, downsize, or find that perfect place to retire, it’s normal to feel unsure—especially with all the noise in the news about the economy and the housing market. The truth is, even in the most stable times, predicting the “perfect” time to buy a home is incredibly hard. The market will always have its ups and downs, and the headlines will never give you the full story. So instead of trying to time the market, here’s a different approach: Focus on your personal readiness—because that’s what truly matters. Here are some key questions to reflect on that can help bring clarity: Would owning a home right now put me in a stronger financial position in the long run? Can I comfortably afford a mortgage while maintaining the lifestyle I want? Is my job or income stable enough to support a new home? Do I have enough saved for a down payment, closing costs, and a little buffer? How long do I plan to stay in the property? If I had to sell earlier than planned, would I be financially okay? Will buying a home now support my long-term goals? Am I ready because I want to buy, or because I feel pressure to act quickly? Am I hesitating because of market fears, or do I have legitimate concerns? These are personal questions, not market ones—and that’s the point. The economy might change tomorrow, but your answers today can guide you toward a decision that actually fits your life. Here’s How I Can Help Buying a home doesn’t have to be stressful when you have a plan and someone to guide you through it. If you want to explore your options, talk through your goals, or just get a better sense of what’s possible, I’m here to help. The best place to start? A mortgage pre-approval . It’s free, it doesn’t lock you into anything, and it gives you a clear picture of what you can afford—so you can move forward with confidence, whether that means buying now or waiting. You don’t have to figure this out alone. If you’re curious, let’s talk. Together, we can map out a homebuying plan that works for you.

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — March 18, 2026

By Shaun Zipursky • March 18, 2026

The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. For anyone watching the mortgage market — whether you're renewing, purchasing, or simply keeping an eye on borrowing costs — here's a breakdown of what was announced and what it may mean for you.